US Poised for Historic Net Migration Loss

Having fewer workers available can tighten the labor market

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

For the first time in over 50 years, more people could leave the United States than arrive this year — a dramatic shift with serious economic impacts. Economists at two Washington think tanks say President Trump’s tougher immigration stance is the main cause.

Policies include tightening the southern border, removing legal status for recent arrivals, discouraging foreign students, and boosting deportations through workplace raids that have sparked protests.

The net outflow could fuel inflation and bring back labor shortages like those seen during the pandemic. Fewer immigrants paying taxes could also strain Social Security and other safety nets, Brookings economist Wendy Edelberg told The Washington Post.

“For the year as a whole, we think immigration will be negative for the first time in more than 50 years,” said Edelberg, who is working with Tara Watson at Brookings and Stan Veuger at the American Enterprise Institute . Their latest paper predicts an even higher chance of negative immigration in 2025 than in their December forecast.

White House Pushback

Meanwhile, the White House insists plenty of American workers are available. Spokesman Kush Desai said more than one in ten young Americans are neither working nor in school, and Trump’s plan is to tap that potential.

Many economists expect immigration to drop to its lowest levels in decades, possibly reversing into a net loss. The last sharp drop happened during the 2008 financial crisis, when many Mexican immigrants returned home.

“It’s not just deportations — inflows are sharply down at the border and through legal channels,” Veuger said. Government data shows the foreign-born workforce has shrunk by over a million since March, reversing record 2024 growth that helped the economy rebound from the pandemic.