The Double Shock

One conflict is being fought with military power and the other through trade

President Trump has based much of his strategy on the belief that the United States can withstand more pressure than the countries it wants to change. Tariffs turn access to American consumers into bargaining power, while military force is meant to protect American interests abroad.

The war with Iran is now testing how much economic pain that strategy can bring home. Renewed fighting has pushed oil back toward $100 a barrel and gasoline above $4 a gallon across much of the country.

At the same time, the administration has restored a broad tariff wall covering nearly all American imports. One conflict is being fought with military power and the other through trade, but American households will help pay for both.

The economy has survived repeated shocks without falling into recession, yet its room for another mistake is getting smaller. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, hiring has slowed and families are still struggling with prices that never returned to their earlier levels. The danger is not simply another round of tariffs or another oil surge, but both arriving together and reinforcing each other.