Staring into the Abyss: Are We Headed Toward Civil War?

It is no exaggeration when I say that I fear that the growing divisions between red and blue states will negatively impact our country's economic and social future.

Economic developers and elected officials should realize that the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade will affect the internal and external flow of talent for the U.S. It will mean, at least for some companies, a reexamination when it comes to site selection.

It may also affect foreign direct investment as more liberal countries will view this as a human rights issue.

Companies will increasingly ask themselves about the duty of care they owe their employees impacted by stricter abortion regulations.

What could this ruling mean for the future of the U.S. workforce if the trend toward retracting rights from vulnerable groups continues?

The differences among states are now similar, both geographically and culturally, to the divides between the Union and the Confederacy. These dangerous divides date back to when slave states and free states forged an uneasy alliance to become ‘one nation.’”

Extremists Prevail

Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world’s biggest hedge fund, wrote on LinkedIn earlier this year that "some form of civil war" was in the offing as moderates would lose seats while extremists and populists in both parties will gain them in the upcoming election.

"By most of the measures that I use, the current financial conditions and irreconcilable differences in desires and values are consistent with the ingredients leading to some form of civil war. We are seeing that they are leading to much greater amounts of populism/extremism and conflicts between the right and the left, which is classic.

"Both sides are fighting to win at all costs and are unwilling to compromise. History shows us that when 1) extremists who will fight to win at all costs are in the majority and 2) respecting rule of law becomes of secondary importance to winning, internal conflicts reach the point of being self-reinforcing. Moderates are eliminated and so is and the ability to compromise, creating the fights to win that are civil wars."

Even to the most casual observer, it should be clear that cracks in the foundations of the United States are widening. No matter your politics, the overturning of Roe v Wade has provoked a legitimacy crisis. Trust in federal government is now at an all-time low.

For the right, it reveals a breakdown of bipartisanship and common purpose within the Supreme Court. For the left, it demonstrates the will of conservative justices to overturn established rights supported by a majority of Americans.

Just prior to the Supreme Court reversing its 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion ruling, Gallup released a poll showing that Americans’ confidence in the court has dropped sharply over the past year, reaching a new low of 25 percent (combined great and quite a lot of confidence), down from 36 percent a year ago.

The 11 points decline comes as Americans remain opposed to overturning Roe v. Wade by a 2-to-1 margin, according to Gallup.

The Fringe Has Become Mainstream

About 10 years ago, I ran into two individuals in separate instances who were calling for the secession of Texas. One was at a flea market and the other, incredibly, was at a comedy club. I dismissed both as right-wing nuts and refused to debate either on the propriety of their arguments. But it has become obvious to me since then that the fringe has become mainstream.

Earlier this month, the Texas Republican Party voted on a platform declaring that federal laws it dislikes “should be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified.” It went on to state that, “Texas retains the right to secede from the United States, and the Texas Legislature should be called upon to pass a referendum consistent thereto.” It wants the secession referendum “in the 2023 general election for the people of Texas to determine whether or not the State of Texas should reassert its status as an independent nation.”

The Confederate Theocracy of Texas would penalize “woke corporations” and businesses that disagree its foundational beliefs over abortion, race, gay rights and the “inalienable right to refuse vaccination.”

It is noteworthy that the Texas GOP has so little regard for the Constitution that it is calling for a “Convention of the States” to effectively rewrite it — and so little regard for the United States that it wishes to leave.

As you may recall, the last time there were votes of secession by states, a bloody civil war resulted in more than 700,000 dead. We have yet to fully recover from that war. Indeed, the Confederacy lives on in the hearts and minds of millions of Americans. And now, we are staring into an abyss to refight that war.

Any time anyone acts on their violent rhetoric, we are appalled that anyone on the other side would resort to such acts, all the while ignoring what radical elements on our side, be it right or left, have done to widen the fracture between blue states and red states.

Incipient civil conflict in the U.S. won’t be formal armies struggling for territory, writes Stephen Marche, author of The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future

"Republican officials will use the supreme court, or whatever other political institutions they control, to push their agenda no matter how unpopular with the American people. Meanwhile, their calls for violence, while never direct, create a climate of rage that solidifies into regular physical assaults on their enemies.

"The leftwing resistance is more nascent but is also taking shape: if you’re rich and you want to stay living in a democracy, the time has come to pony up. If you’re an engineer, the time has come to organize. The conclusion is not at all determined. Neither side has an absolute advantage. Neither side can win easily. But one fact is clear. The battle has been joined, and it will be fought everywhere."

Dean Barber is the principal of Dallas-based BBA, offering objective insight to economic development organizations and companies. Our national network of esteemed consultants finds practical and tactical solutions that work. Need a speaker? Email Dean at dbarber@barberadvisors.com