By the time you read this, I will be residing in Querétaro, Mexico, a decision that has been two years in the making.
I am from all over. I had a childhood similar to that of an Army brat, except my father, a metallurgical engineer, was not in the Army. We just moved a lot for reasons I never fully understood.
Dallas was my home for 13 years, my second long tenure living anywhere. I lived in Birmingham, Alabama, for about 20 years, before that, various stints mostly in the Midwest.
I moved to Dallas in 2010 with the specific purpose of establishing an economic development consultancy. My consulting practice will continue by they way. I have no intention of retiring. I just wanted to pick up and live in Mexico.
What draws me there is a combination of things. Following a divorce, amicable as one could be under the circumstances, there is nothing keeping me in Dallas. No kids, no family. I joke that all my friends and family are either dead or in jail. (Little bit of truth to that.)
The more I have learned about Mexico in my research and by visiting, the more I like and respect the people and the culture. To say they are hard working is an understatement. Yes, there is the scourge of the cartels, but I will avoid the narcos.
In my case, a lower cost of living will almost assuredly ensure a better quality of life. The healthcare in Queretaro, a city of about 1 million people, is excellent. An aerospace center, Queretaro has a thriving and growing Mexican middle class. New money is obvious here. Heck, there's even a Costco and an HEB.
There is a story going around that the cartel bosses place their families in Queretaro as a safe haven, a no compete zone. I don't know if that is true. What I do know is that the city is very safe and clean. And the climate in the central highlands (Queretaro is approaching 6,000 feelt altitude) requires no air conditioning or heating bills. Highs are typically in the mid 70s during the day dipping down into the 50s at night year round.
I am renting a fabulous four-bedroom, three bath house with two rooftop terraces on high ground overlooking the city. I'm a 15-minute walk to the 400-year old El Centro Historical, with its bars, restaurants and shops. As a matter of fact, just about everything will be within walking distance.
I have arranged for a tutor to come to my house three days a week to teach me Spanish. I know enough now to get by, but I want to be more conversational and frankly make Mexican friends. I hope to get fiber optic broadband installed as soon as possible.
The Final Days
It is interesting what has happened in my waning days in Texas. On Wednesday, for the first time, I took the Trinity Railway Express from Dallas to Fort Worth. For 13 years, I never did that, and, yet, it was enjoyable not having to battle DFW traffic (normally friendly people grow fangs when behind the wheel) and cheap, too.
On Wednesday night, I stayed at a bed and breakfast, The Rosen House, in the historic Fairmount District of Fort Worth. It was just my luck, not planning, that I was only a few blocks away from Heim Barbecue, my favorite barbecue restaurant in all of Texas.
The next day, Thursday, I taught a class at TCU for the Advanced Economic Development Leadership Program. I spoke for about an hour to a veteran group of economic developers on strategic planning.
The gist of my talk: Forget strategic planning. Think continous planning if you truly want your organization to make a mark.
Then, about 12 hours later, Mexican movers were at my Dallas apartment door. They arrived about 11 p.m. and they were gone by 3 a.m. Friday, carrying all my stuff -- too much stuff -- to Queretaro, about 1,000 miles south.
And while I had been packing for several weeks, my Mexican girlfriend, keep in mind that the DFW is about 40 percent Hispanic, took Thursday and Friday off from work to help me finish packing and be the liason with the two movers who spoke little English.
After the movers left, Geo and I, exhausted, slept on the floor of my barren apartment and got maybe two or three hours of sleep. Later, early Friday afternoon, she dropped me at a hotel near near the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, on her way back home to Fort Worth. She had work and family to attend to.
Goodbyes are so hard. Geo and I do not know when we will see each again, but I am certain that we will. We both teared up. For reasons I will not go into, immigration policies prevent her from accompanying me to her home country and being able to return the United States.
She lives with her daugher and grandson, and sacrificed a great corporate job to be with them. Now she works illegally for crummy wages in two restaurants seven days a week. Now tell me that is not devotion. She acknoledges that she had a better quality of life in Mexico, but family always comes first in Mexican culture.
A few weeks ago, Geo asked me, "Dean, why don't Americans work?" I struggled for an answer,
I do know this: I am about to embark on an exciting new chapter of my life. I'll let you know how Dean's Great Adventure is going if you would like. I promised Geo that I will be back to visit her. She tells me that I am a good man. I've only matured.
An estimated 1.6 million Americans live in Mexico.
Speaking About Dallas and Fort Worth
The Dallas-Fort Worth metro area had the most substantial increase in population among metro areas nationwide, adding 170,000 people over a one year period, according to the July 1, 2022 Census Bureau Findings,
The DFW's total population is about 7.9 million, making it the fou, according to the July 1, 2022.
Fort Worth experienced the largest increase, adding over 19,000 people and becoming the 13th largest city in the country with a population of approximately 956,000.
Dallas and Frisco also saw significant growth, ranking 13th and 15th, respectively.
Dallas has long been renowned for its extravagant lifestyle, an image cultivated by its association with oil wealth and the sprawling ranch lands showcased in the famous TV series bearing its name.
However, the city is currently experiencing a wave of new growth, an influx of residents, and a surge in prosperity. This transformation is accompanied by a vibrant dining scene, as several upscale national restaurant groups have arrived, eager to cater to the city's festivities.
These companies are showering Dallas with the kind of attention previously reserved for tourist hotspots like Las Vegas and Miami. Over the past couple of years, establishments such as STK, RH, Komodo, La Neta Cocina y Lounge, and even Nusr-Et (the Salt Bae steakhouse) have established local branches, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Last year, Major Food Group introduced its opulent Italian restaurant Carbone to Dallas and expressed even grander aspirations for the city.
Demographers predict that by the 2030s, Dallas, currently the largest metropolis in Texas, may overtake Chicago as the third-largest metro area in the nation.
Restaurants Galore
So where will these newcomers seek entertainment? Although the Dallas-Fort Worth area lacks beaches, mountains, or world-famous landmarks, it boasts around 15,000 dining establishments. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2022, Dallas households spent a larger portion of their income on dining out compared to New York, Miami, or San Francisco.
Similar to any major city, Dallas grapples with its share of challenges, including a poverty rate of 17.7% among its population and economic inequality.
However, the area is also home to 92,300 millionaires and 18 billionaires, making Dallas the 18th wealthiest city globally, as per a 2022 report from London-based investment firm Henley & Partners.
The region boasts several Fortune 500 companies, such as AT&T and American Airlines, with their headquarters located there.
The Metroplex Takes a Hit
During the same week that the Journal was touting DFW's growth and prosperity, it took a hit in the latest highly anticipated annual report on the best places to live in the United States. According to the 2023-2024 rankings by U.S. News & World Report, the Metroplex has landed at a disheartening No. 113 out of 150.
This decline is particularly notable considering that DFW held the respectable position of No. 32 last year and No. 37 in 2021. The sudden drop begs the question: What happend?
The answer lies in the criteria and the weightings assigned to various metrics, which U.S. News alters on a yearly basis. These changes in methodology ultimately influenced the unfavorable outcome for Dallas-Fort Worth in this year's rankings.
“This year’s rankings are a reflection of the current economic, social, and natural factors that impact a place’s livability for its residents,” said Devon Thorsby, real estate editor at U.S. News, in a release.
“People are considering more than housing when they look at an area’s affordability – they want to know how much goods cost in that area. The ever-present risk for severe weather and a community’s ability to recover – coupled with the area’s opportunities for social activities – are also taken into account when evaluating a best place to live.”
Dallas-Fort Worth continues to receive accolades for offering a unique blend of vibrant urban experiences and peaceful suburban living. It is praised for embodying a fusion of Texan pride and cosmopolitan offerings.
One noteworthy aspect highlighted by U.S. News is the significant population growth in the region, indicating that more people are choosing to make DFW their home.
In the 2023 edition of U.S. News' Best Places to Retire rankings, the Metroplex secured the 98th spot.
Messing with the Mouse Could Prove Costly
It's generally unwise to engage in a conflict that one cannot afford to lose. However, if you look at the ongoing dispute between Disney and Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, it appears that the state could well be put in a precarious position.
After a year of escalating tensions, Disney recently took a significant step by canceling a $1 billion development project in Florida. This corporate campus had the potential to create over 2,000 jobs in the Sunshine State, but reports suggest that Disney's strained relationship with Florida was one of the factors that led to the project's abandonment.
So, who stands to lose the most in this feud: Florida, the governor, or the company?
"I believe DeSantis has more at stake in this situation. Depending on his political skills, he may be able to salvage the situation," said Richard Foglesong, an expert on the history and politics of Walt Disney World, in an interview with Insider last week.
Foglesong is the author of the 2003 book "Married to the Mouse: Walt Disney World and Orlando."
DeSantis has faced political repercussions due to the Disney conflict, including accusations from fellow Republicans that the governor, who announced this past week that he is running for president in 2024, is not business-friendly and has caused job losses in the state.
A study conducted by Oxford Economics revealed that Orlando's tourism industry generated $75.2 billion for central Florida in 2018. While this figure includes revenue from other attractions, Disney exerts significant dominance over the region's tourism sector with its four theme parks and two water parks.
The study also indicated that Orlando's tourism industry supported nearly half a million jobs, contributing $5.8 billion in state and local tax revenue that funds public safety, infrastructure, schools, and other essential services.
Disney says it employs about 75,000 people in Florida, making it the state's second-largest private employer after the Publix grocery-store chain, as reported by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
Although Disney World in Florida attracts 58 million visitors annually across its four parks, the company has numerous other locations worldwide that draw tens of millions of people each year.
Foglesong previously noted that Disney was tied to central Florida due to substantial investments in infrastructure, making it impractical to relocate the theme park and resort elsewhere.
While Disney cannot simply leave the state, Foglesong suggested that they could reduce their investment in replenishing the Disney World theme park. However, he also highlighted that around 70% of Disney World guests are repeat visitors. This statistic reflects positively on Disney but also places additional pressure on the company to continue investing in the Florida resort.
Failing to do so could result in a loss of customers, potentially harming Orlando's economy and creating a lose-lose situation for both the state and the company—unless Disney can compensate for the loss elsewhere.
The Burbs are Back
American suburbia, once characterized by declining malls and vacant office parks, is experiencing a resurgence. A convergence of demographic, housing, and business trends is revitalizing suburbs across the country.
According to Census data, between 2010 and 2020, the suburban population in the United States grew by 10.5 percent. The COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated this trend, as reported by The New York Times.
Millennials, the largest generation, are increasingly choosing to buy homes and settle down outside of cities, contrary to previous assumptions of their preference for urban living. A recent Bank of America survey revealed that 45 percent of millennials expect to purchase a home in the suburbs.
Another driving factor for the suburban revival is the rise of hybrid and remote work. As the ability to work from home continues to be an incentive, young families are seeking out more affordable housing options in remote suburban and rural areas, as noted by Bank of America analysts.
Even if individuals are not fully remote, the reduced frequency of office attendance makes the suburbs appealing, with longer commutes being seen as less of a hindrance, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
This resurgence of suburbs is also attracting new businesses, restaurants, and retailers to these smaller town centers. Urban retail vacancies have surpassed suburban retail vacancies for the first time since 2013, according to CBRE data reported by The Wall Street Journal.
These changes in suburban dynamics are also altering their demographic makeup. Suburbs, especially larger ones, are becoming more racially diverse than the country as a whole, according to analysis by the Brookings Institution.
However, downtown areas should not be underestimated. Despite hybrid work models, people are gradually returning to city centers.
And while suburbs near cities are thriving, the demand for housing in distant suburbs has significantly decreased since the peak of the pandemic, according to Lawrence Yun.
Pretend It's American
After decades of trying to sell German engineering to Americans only to end up with a tiny slice of the world’s most profitable car market, Volkswagen is about to relaunch the defunct Scout brand as an off-road electric vehicle made to Americans’ tastes.
VW is hoping that the combination of a U.S. brand, a marketing message heavy on Americana, and a foray into SUVs and pickup trucks—the biggest and most profitable segment of the U.S. car market—can finally boost its presence in the country.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for VW, which has become reliant on China for almost half its sales. As it loses ground there to nimbler homegrown EV startups, it is under pressure to increase its presence in other markets, and the U.S. is where it has the most headroom.
The carmaker is planning to launch more than two dozen electric models in the U.S. across its stable of brands, but executives hope that Scout can create the buzz they need to challenge General Motors and Ford on their home ground.
“Made in America by Americans, an American brand is a powerful thing, and we’re excited about it,” Scout Chief Executive Officer Scott Keogh told The WSJ this year after closing the deal to locate Scout’s first manufacturing plant in South Carolina.
“This is going to put us right into the heart of the action,” he added.
In 2020, VW acquired Navistar, an ailing truck maker and successor to the defunct International Harvester. With it came a once-beloved brand that hadn’t produced any vehicle since 1980: Scout.
Afterward, VW’s management laid the groundwork to resurrect the Scout brand as a rugged all-electric SUV and pickup truck, according to company officials. Last year, VW announced its plan to revive the brand as a fully-owned independent American subsidiary with local management centered around an iconic American vehicle—a first for VW.
Scout dates back to the late 1950s, when Ted Ornas, an auto designer for International Harvester, designed the company’s first Scout, a four-wheel-drive recreational vehicle, something that didn’t exist at the time.
Frustrated after his designs generated little interest from his superiors, Ornas, who died in 2009, once said he dashed off a rough sketch at his kitchen table one evening. That became the basis for the first Scout, a box-shaped mashup of a World War II-era Willy Jeep and a pickup truck.
The vehicle launched in 1960 and half a million Scouts sold over the next 20 years, creating a passionate fan base.
In February, after considering 74 potential sites, Keogh, along with several top VW executives, chose a location near Columbia, S.C. They were invited to a working dinner at the Civil War-era mansion of South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, which offered a picturesque view of the Broad and Saluda rivers.
Among the guests were South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Commerce Secretary Harry Lightsey, and officials from Richland County. As the evening unfolded, the governor's English bulldog, Mac, navigated through the gathering and settled next to Keogh, as reported by attendees.
During the event, Keogh presented a video and delivered a 15-minute pitch, portraying Scout as the epitome of the American dream, as recalled by McMaster in a recent interview.
The governor reminisced, "It showcased a blend of self-reliance, determination, patriotic fervor, and an exceptional vehicle. These qualities resonate strongly with the people of South Carolina. They are the kind of attributes that can overcome any obstacle."
Just a month later, South Carolina lawmakers granted approval for $1.3 billion in funding to support VW in constructing the plant.
The Challenge Faced by Office Buildings
While it's true that more people are now going to the office compared to a year ago, we are still far from reaching the levels seen before the pandemic.
Moreover, the realm of remote work and actually began long before the pandemic. The push for a full-scale return to the office is not as robust as it may seem. For every high-profile company insisting on employees returning to the office, there is another that allows them to work remotely as they see fit.
Even companies that have implemented policies requiring employees to return to the office have either backtracked on those policies or failed to enforce them.
The mayor of New York City, who initially advocated for a five-day-a-week return to the office and mandated such a policy in June last year, is now reconsidering as the city grapples with job vacancies.
This situation is already taking a toll on the commercial real estate sector.
Office owners are struggling to lease out their spaces and secure financing, leading to a rise in delinquency rates for office loans. According to data from finance analytics firm Trepp, the delinquency rate currently stands at 2.8 percent, the highest since the start of the pandemic.
This can be attributed in part to increasing interest rates and difficulties faced by regional banks, which are the primary lenders in commercial real estate.
While some people will undoubtedly continue to work from offices in the future, it will be fewer individuals and less frequently. As a result, the demand for office space will decrease, and the spaces themselves will need to be of higher quality.
The surplus of available office space, as owners struggle to find tenants, has created a tenants' market. Companies are now able to be more selective in their choice of office spaces, favoring those of superior quality.
Current data reveals that the majority of workers who have the option to work from home still do so either partially (46 percent) or entirely (19 percent) of the time, according to WFH Research. Prior to the pandemic, these figures were in the single digits.
Stanford economics professor Nick Bloom, involved in the research, suggests that the number of workers in hybrid work situations may even reach around 60 percent, with most of the gains coming at the expense of those currently working in the office full-time.
This shift is already evident in survey data, as companies that previously insisted their employees would be fully on-site are now transitioning to hybrid work arrangements.
The limited return-to-office movement has resulted in a significant amount of empty office space. According to XY Sense, a company that employs sensors to track office occupancy, office utilization in North America currently stands at around 21 percent, less than half of pre-pandemic levels.
This aligns with data from key card swipe company Kastle, which indicates that US office occupancy levels are at 50 percent compared to before the pandemic.
Build-To-Rent Single Family Housing Growing
It's no great secret that now is not a particularly good time to buy a house. That has translated into stronger-than-ever demand for rental property, especially single-family homes.
Built-to-rent housing can provide the opportunity to move into a brand-new house — often with professional property management and other amenities attached — without the need to raise a huge down payment or a long-term commitment to stay in place.
Such houses aren't available everywhere. In 10 states, including Oregon, Massachusetts and West Virginia, there is no built-to-rent construction of single-family homes ongoing or planned at all, per the National Rental Home Council (NRHC).
On a per-capita basis, the state with by far the most built-to-rent housing is Arizona, with 2,011 units planned or under construction per million inhabitants. North Carolina is a distant second, with 1,071; Texas is third, with 856. Nationwide, the average is 345.
“Built-to-rent housing is quickly emerging as an essential, and highly desirable, sector of America’s housing market,” NRHC Chief Executive David Howard told Axios.
"America is facing a housing shortage of somewhere between 3 and 6 million homes. Anything that brings more housing into the mix is a positive."
Built-to-rent single-family new construction isn't going to singlehandedly solve the housing crisis, with only 115,091 units in the pipeline nationwide.
A new dataset from NRHC and Yardi Matrix will allow economists to gauge, on a quarterly and state-by-state basis, whether that new supply is growing or shrinking.
I Go Where The Need Is Greatest
As an economic development consultant, I am seldom hired by communities that are experiencing hell-for-leather population growth.
No, I am usually brought in by communities that are seeing stagnate growth or even a decline in population.These are places that need help and they know it.
Why it matters: More people in a community means a larger workforce, and more labor leads to more products and services being produced which leads to economic growth.
Population growth and economic growth are inextricably linked. Two peas in a pod as Forrest Gump would say.
Stagnation or loss of population can come about for various reasons.
1. The availability and attractiveness of job opportunities can significantly impact population growth. If a community experiences limited economic growth, fewer job opportunities are available, leading to reduced migration and population growth. The decline of certain industries or a lack of diversification is typically at the root of the problem.
2. Availability and the affordability of housing can impact population growth. If housing costs are high or there is a limited supply of affordable housing, it can deter people from moving to a community or cause existing residents to relocate elsewhere. In some cases, the housing market may not adequately meet the needs of the population, leading to slower growth.I see that quite frequently.
3. Demographic Factors: Changes in birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns can influence population growth. If the birth rate is low and not offset by in-migration, it can result in a flat or declining population. Similarly, if more people are leaving a community through out-migration compared to those moving in, it can contribute to stagnant population growth.
4. The population growth of a specific area can be influenced by larger regional or national trends. For example, if the surrounding region experiences a decline in population or economic stagnation, it can have a spillover effect on a community.
5. Quality of life indicators such as educational opportunities, healthcare facilities, cultural amenities, and overall livability can impact population growth. If a community lacks attractive amenities or faces challenges in providing essential services, it may not be as appealing for people to settle or remain there.
All these factors interact with each other, creating complex dynamics that affect how and if a community grows.
My job is to help communities stop the bleeding and develop strategies to turn things around. It can be done.
Mamas, Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up to Become Consultants
For all of you folks who have been considering hanging out your shingle as a business consultant, listen up.
You know, I've been bawled out an balled up, held down and held up,
Bulldozed, black-jacked, walked on and cheated, squeezed and mooched. Stood for war tax, excess profit, state, dog, and sin tax, Liberty bonds, baby bonds, and the bonds of matrimony.
I been Red Crossed, Green crossed and double crossed.
I been asked to join the society for John the Baptist, the D.A.R. Woman's corps , the Men’s Stomach and Relief Corps.
I 've worked like heck, and been worked like heck.
I've been drunk and got others drunk.
Lost all I had and part of my furniture.
Because I want to go around now ans spend some little part of that which I did earn and not go beg, borrow and steal, well, I've been cussed and discussed, boycotted - talked to and talked about, lied to and lied about, held up and hung up and doggone nigh murdered.
An the only reason I'm sticking around now, folks, is to see just what in the heck is gonna happen next.
And if that ain't some hard luck consultant blues, then you tell me what is.
Ok, time to fess up: I'm stealing from Talking Hard Luck by the New Lost City Ramblers. Enjoy the video below.
The New Lost City Ramblers, or NLCR, was an American contemporary old-time string band that formed in New York City in 1958 during the folk revival. Mike Seeger, John Cohen and Tom Paley were its founding members. Tracy Schwarz replaced Paley, who left the group in 1962. Seeger died of cancer in 2009, Paley died in 2017, and Cohen died in 2019. NLCR participated in the old-time music revival, and directly influenced many later musicians.
Querétaro is a beautiful city in the central highlands region of Mexico. It is known for its colonial heritage, great quality of life, safety, and for the growth it's had in the last 25 years.
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BBA helps communities build a better investment environment and companies find better communities to invest in. For more information, contact me, Dean Barber, at dbarber@barberadvisors.com. Need a speaker? I can be there for you.
13101 Preston Road #1103523, Dallas, TX, 75240
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www.barberadvisors.com
Buena suerte, compadre. I’ve spent a fair bit of time south of the border, and might go back when my nest is empty. Then again, I might just move to Mexico, Maine.